November 8, 2015 9:55 PM
It has now been three weeks since CitronResearch.com accused Valeant (VRX: NYSE) of being Pharmron (Pharma + Enron). Ever since then, I’ve read a bunch of articles and tried to find an actionable angle. When there are rumors, innuendo and allegations of fraud, there’s a potential for opportunity. However, the deeper I dug; something increasingly struck me as rather odd about Valeant. At its peak, why was it so overvalued?
Valeant has spent approximately $34 billion on acquisitions after sub... more
September 27, 2015 2:54 AM
Starting at the end of 2014, I wrote a number of pieces (There Will Be Blood!!, There Will Be Blood!! (Part II), There Will Be Blood!! (Part III), There Will Be Blood!! (Part III.V)) detailing how QE was facilitating the production of certain real assets like oil where the production decision was no longer being tied to profitability. For instance, shale producers could borrow cheaply, produce at a loss and debt investors would simply look the other way because of the attractive yields that ... more
September 7, 2015 4:51 PM
It's now been about 10 months since I last wrote about the Chinese Renminbi (CNY). At the time, I was bearish and expecting a decline in the CNY (which has since happened).
White vertical line is the first article date
Now here’s the thing about devaluations; when the structural forces say that a controlled currency should devalue—it usually does. It’s rare to see a “one and done,” especially when the currency is only allowed to devalue by a few percent—as it did in August.
To review wh... more
September 3, 2015 3:23 PM
So, I was sitting in the Plaza De Los Coches in Cartagena, Colombia. It was past midnight, but still 95 degrees with an asphyxiating humidity that I have yet to experience in Miami. Fortunately, I had a cold beer in hand and was surrounded by good friends. In any case, I was transfixed by the parade of drunken tourists, prostitutes and the awkwardly comical pollination of the two. Yes, for over four centuries, despite revolutions, plagues, endemic crime, pirate induced destruction and a whol... more
July 12, 2015 10:52 PM
As many of you know, I live in Miami—what you probably don’t know, is that without the cocaine trade, Miami would still be a backwater like Fort Meyers—good weather, some interesting architecture, but not much modern development. Instead, Miami is the capital of Latin America. It got to that pinnacle through the activities of a motley band of Colombians—none more famous than Pablo Escobar.
With the cocaine coming in, the money had to go out or at least get laundered into something. As you l... more